Due to Carson Wentz’s 2021 season, we will quantify the precise private harm of a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s the distinction between a primary spherical choose and a third-rounder.
Wentz was traded from Philadelphia to the Indianapolis Colts final offseason at a worth that turned out to be first and third-round draft picks. On Wednesday, the Colts shipped him again to the NFC East to the Washington Commanders. Their worth? A second-round choose swap and a package deal reportedly headlined by two third-round picks.
How did Wentz’s worth fall so steeply after a season by which he ranked among the many high 10 passers in QBR and posted a 27:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio? The largest wrongdoer is the late-season meltdown by which the one-time MVP candidate wanted solely a win over the then-2-14 Jaguars to qualify for the playoffs and as an alternative performed soccer like somebody’s little brother was controlling him with a damaged joystick.
And so, a season by which the Colts had 4 wins towards playoff groups — together with double-digit victories over the Payments, 49ers, and Patriots — ended with no journey to the postseason and sealed Wentz’s destiny in Indianapolis. Basic supervisor Chris Ballard determined the chance of a reclamation challenge like Jimmy Garoppolo or Teddy Bridgewater was extra tempting than the reward of one other 12 months of watching Wentz do that:
That’s … grim. So what are the Commanders getting out of this?
Most significantly, they’re getting stability at a place they’ve struggled to fill since operating Kirk Cousins out of city. Washington cycled by 9 completely different starters since Alex Smith’s career-threatening damaged leg 10 video games into the 2018 season. Wentz is, if nothing else, a stabilizing presence; he’s began each sport of the common season in two of the final three years. The four-game stretch he missed in 2020 was whereas the workforce auditioned Jalen Hurts for the highest spot on the finish of a misplaced season.
He’s additionally among the finest obtainable choices in a restricted market. Tuesday’s information that Aaron Rodgers would return to the Packers and Russell Wilson’s commerce to the Broncos shrank this 12 months’s restricted crop of viable beginning quarterbacks even additional. The free agent market’s high passers are Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater. The fellows doubtless obtainable by way of commerce have been Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, and possibly somebody within the Jared Goff/Derek Carr vary. This 12 months’s crop of rookies is without doubt one of the weakest of the previous 20 years.
Wentz was publicly obtainable after stories dropped Indianapolis was accomplished with him. He was additionally cheap, each as a commerce goal and by way of future commitments. His $28 million cap hit in 2022 is fully too excessive (and a welcome determine for the Colts to wipe off their books), however he could be launched earlier than the 2023 season with no penalty for Washington. The workforce can use these non-guaranteed years to doubtlessly signal Wentz to an extension that lessens his 2022 wage cap quantity, or it will possibly deal with 2022 as a risk-free preview and stroll away free and clear if its newest try and discover a franchise QB fails.
The Commanders perceive they solely want borderline competence at quarterback to be a playoff workforce. They received an objectively horrible NFC East in 2020 with Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and late-stage, low-impact Smith offering AAF-level QB play. They noticed the Eagles reap the benefits of a gentle schedule to earn a 2021 Wild Card bid regardless of the league’s Twentieth-ranked passer ranking and a protection that ranked twenty sixth in general DVOA. Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are now not within the convention. There’s room for a mediocre workforce to make noise within the postseason.
Washington believes its protection greater than it believes Wentz will pilot the workforce to shootout wins. The Commanders backslid final season, however will welcome a wholesome Chase Younger again to the lineup and may get a greater season from cornerback William Jackson after a regrettable 2021.
The secondary is an issue and Wentz’s presence will eat up many of the workforce’s current cap house, however assist may very well be coming at this 12 months’s draft. The workforce nonetheless has its first two picks and has historically centered on protection (5 first spherical defenders within the final 5 years). Buying a veteran QB was a message Washington isn’t within the danger of one other Haskins-level prospect with the eleventh general choose. As a substitute, the workforce is keen to take a position its developmental instruments at constructing across the place.
For this commerce to be successful, Wentz simply must be common and obtainable. He must be the risk-averse quarterback he did not be in Indianapolis. He must be what the workforce hoped it was getting when it despatched a 3rd spherical choose and Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs to amass Alex Smith.
That’s not likely in Wentz’s DNA at this level, however he’s nonetheless able to huge throws and regular performs. The query now could be whether or not Ron Rivera can do what Sean Payton did with Jameis Winston in New Orleans and get him to cease taking part in hero ball and embrace good, protected choices as an alternative.
That’s a serious carry for a quarterback who’ll flip 30 years outdated this season. But it surely’s in all probability the perfect Washington was going to get in 2022. If Wentz fails, he units the Commanders as much as take a crack at one other quarterback in a a lot stronger draft subsequent spring. If he succeeds, he’s below contract for 2 extra years.
That’s not an amazing danger to take, however not less than it was a comparatively low-cost one.
