Scotland had nothing to win and all the things to lose in Rome. After grinding their option to an 11-point victory over the perennial picket spoon holders, a gargantuan problem awaits in Dublin towards title-chasing Eire.
The indicators aren’t massively encouraging. Scotland’s stats in comparison with final season present a marked decline from a facet that was anticipated to make the following step.
As an alternative, has Gregor Townsend’s crew gone backwards? Was the excessive of final season, that in the end nonetheless led to disappointment, the height of their powers?
With one win in Dublin previously 23 years, it’ll take an almighty quantity of drawback fixing to get a optimistic outcome of their closing outing. Listed here are a number of the key points going through Scotland…
Lack of defensive identification
Within the first few years of the Townsend period, the facet appeared to imitate how the previous Scotland maestro had performed in his hey-day. They have been attacking, ingenious, with the timing of Finn Russell’s rise to world-class entertainer no coincidence.
However, after crashing out of the 2019 World Cup on the group stage, Townsend took a unique tack. Steve Tandy joined in December 2019 and virtually instantly created one of many hardest defences in Take a look at rugby, led by Jonny Grey and Hamish Watson.
They conceded a median of 1 strive per sport, versus the three.4 a 12 months earlier than. They missed 12 fewer tackles on common every match and let groups into their 22-metre zone three fewer instances per sport. As well as, they conceded fewer factors per 22-metre entry.
Mainly, they shut up store and, when groups did break in, they got here out with little to talk of. Final 12 months’s championship adopted an identical pattern – Scotland have been down to simply 11 missed tackles per sport on common, with a 91% sort out success fee. The stats – each as a gaggle and individually – spoke of a facet that was top-of-the-line on this planet at conserving groups out.
But, this newest of iteration of Scotland has turn out to be extra porous in defence.
This 12 months they’ve already conceded 11 tries – yet another than final season, six greater than the marketing campaign earlier than that – they usually have not even performed Eire but. They’re lacking 17.3 tackles per sport on common, with 11.5 penalties conceded, too.
In truth, Scotland have given away extra penalties – 46 – than another facet this season. 13 towards each England and Wales, 12 towards France, eight towards Italy. These are a number of the greatest sides on this planet and gifting them territory, possession and factors on such a frequent foundation will inevitably deliver hurt.
Midfield conundrum
Russell, when match and prepared, will at all times put on the ten shirt for Scotland. The query that appears to be perplexing the teaching employees is, who’s greatest suited to partnering him at 12?
There’s not essentially one proper reply. Generally, various things are wanted from the within centre relying on the opposition. However the chopping and altering appears to be to Scotland’s attacking detriment.
The commonest companion in latest instances has been Sam Johnson, who began the Calcutta Cup win, the excessive level of this match to date. He carried out properly that day defensively, however provided little in assault.
Then Cardiff got here and with it, Sione Tuipulotu. He made his first Six Nations begin within the Welsh cauldron and it did not fairly work. He was trusted once more with the jersey towards France however was outclassed by reverse quantity Jonathan Danty.
Nearly as good as Tuipulotu has been within the United Rugby Championship with Glasgow, it’s a massive step as much as Take a look at stage and he wants time to regulate – particularly ready that is not his greatest.
The worrying factor is neither of those gamers have gelled properly with Russell. And Townsend hasn’t been helped by the rise and halt of Cameron Redpath. Everybody who watched final 12 months’s Calcutta Cup thought Scotland had discovered their reply – somebody on the identical wavelength as Russell who intrinsically knew what the fly-half would do and reacted accordingly.
Since then, Redpath has been patched up greater than Frankenstein’s monster. Damage after harm have stunted his progress considerably and he is solely picked up one cap since – on for 2 minutes within the defeat towards Wales.
Is persistence carrying skinny for Russell?
The fulcrum of Scotland’s assault is Russell – however the 29-year-old has been a shadow of the participant everybody is aware of he’s. He nonetheless swaggers about with the smile and smirk we have turn out to be accustomed to however hasn’t delivered on that charmer’s promise.
The calmness that personifies his sport has given option to questionable decision-making. The opposite fear is that not is he simply ill-disciplined with the ball in hand – kicking needlessly or attempting the infinite Hollywood ball that won’t come off this season – he’s additionally making a gift of penalties and selecting up playing cards consequently.
The yellow in Cardiff was pricey, having gotten away along with his yellow at Twickenham and purple in Paris final 12 months. If Scotland are ever going to problem for the title, they want Russell at his best possible and this 12 months he has been ineffective.
The 29-year-old had loads of credit score within the financial institution – his heroics in these early Townsend days are onerous to overlook – however persistence could also be carrying skinny.
Worth reignites & Graham a shining gentle
There are, although, positives for Townsend heading to Eire. Ali Worth is again at his greatest, galvanised by his milestone fiftieth cap. He, like lots of Scotland’s genuinely world-class gamers, had been a shadow of his former self on this match.
In opposition to Italy nevertheless, he rediscovered the participant that got here from relative obscurity – in Lions’ phrases – to grab the quantity 9 shirt from earlier vacationers Gareth Davies and Conor Murray.
His contender for man of the match may have been Darcy Graham – having fun with his greatest spell of rugby to this point. The little Hawick winger was at one level probably the most underrated member of Scotland’s beginning XV – he is now one in all Townsend’s first picks.
Outshining the X-factor of Duhan van der Merwe this marketing campaign along with his dogged work fee, he affords simply as a lot electrical energy on the flank. With three tries in a marketing campaign the place his team-mates have stuttered, he has shone.
