March Insanity Cinderella groups: Why Colgate might make a run within the 2022 NCAA match

Group: Colgate Raiders

Document: 23-11
Convention: Patriot League
Seed: 14
First Spherical Opponent: Wisconsin (Friday, 9:50 p.m. ET)
DraftKings Sportsbook odds: Colgate +7.5, Colgate +6000 to succeed in Elite Eight

What You Have to Know

For the third time in as a few years (excluding 2020), the Colgate Raiders are headed to the NCAA match after rolling by means of the Patriot League and gobbling up the convention’s automated bid.

Listed below are three issues it’s essential know in regards to the Raiders earlier than deciding whether or not or to not pull the set off on a 14/3 upset of Wisconsin.

1. They’ll mild up the scoreboard

Historical past tells us that offensive-minded groups one-bid leagues are much more more likely to pull first spherical upsets than groups which have gotten to the Huge Dance primarily with their protection. That’s excellent news for a Colgate workforce that ranks second within the nation in three-point taking pictures (40.1 p.c), eighth in assists per recreation (17.2), and eleventh in efficient area objective share (59.9 p.c). Of their three Patriot League match video games, the Raiders scored 91, 81 and 74 factors.

2. They’re scorching

Each workforce from a one-bid league goes to be driving a profitable streak of some type into March Insanity (effectively, besides Jacksonville State I assume … develop up, NCAA … let Bellarmine play), however the Raiders have been notably scorching. Colgate has gained its final 15 contests, hasn’t been overwhelmed since a 4-point loss at Boston U. on Jan. 28, which can also be its solely setback since all the best way again on Jan. 4.

Eleven of Colgate’s 15 wins on this streak have come by double figures. The Raiders had been particularly dominant within the Patriot League match, profitable their three video games by 28, 20 and 16 factors, respectively.

3. They’ve already proven they will slay a large

Colgate performed an especially difficult non-conference schedule, almost pulling upsets of each NC State (77-74) and Pittsburgh (71-68). The ACC workforce who wasn’t fairly as lucky in opposition to the Raiders was Syracuse, who obtained blown away by Matt Langel’s squad, 100-85 again on Nov. 20.

Whereas Syracuse isn’t almost the workforce Wisconsin is, Colgate will doubtless attempt to make the most of the identical recreation plan in opposition to the Badgers they they rode to victory in opposition to the Orange: Take a bunch of threes, make a bunch of threes. The Raiders launched a complete of 43 pictures from past the arc in opposition to Syracuse, and related on 18 of these. Jack Ferguson and Nelly Cummings each went 6-of-13 from deep to guide the surface onslaught.

Why They Can Advance

Any workforce that shoots the ball in addition to Colgate does goes to have an opportunity in just about any recreation it performs. What separates the Raiders from different mid/low main groups on this match which have the flexibility to attain is that Colgate additionally occurs to have a pair of bigs (6’11 Jeff Woodward and 6’10 Keegan Information) who ought to have the ability to maintain Wisconsin from dominating on the glass.

However the greatest motive Colgate has a shot at advancing is who they’re taking part in. After a string of slim victories, Wisconsin enters the NCAA match coming off back-to-back losses to Nebraska at dwelling in its common season finale and Michigan State in its first recreation of the Huge Ten match.

Maybe extra troubling than that’s the truth that, because the chart beneath reveals, the Badgers will be predisposed for taking (and never making) an entire lot of dangerous pictures.

A workforce that may get from deep in opposition to anybody in opposition to a workforce that’s susceptible to prolonged droughts and lapses of poor judgment on offense is the right recipe for a closer-than-expected 3/14 recreation.

What Previous Cinderella They Remind Us Of

The 2018-19 Colgate Raiders.

So technically Colgate wasn’t a Cinderella three years in the past, however their statistical profile from that season is eerily much like their present one. That Raiders workforce shot the three at an almost 40 p.c clip, had almost an similar document as this yr’s group, and entered the NCAA match with a prolonged profitable streak that had been capped by a dominant run within the Patriot League match.

Colgate was a 15-seed that yr, however they pushed second-seeded Tennessee to absolutely the brink earlier than in the end falling within the last minute, 77-70. Don’t be shocked in any respect if this yr’s Raiders put an analogous scare into one other energy convention opponent that has aspirations of taking part in deep into March.