For 3 seasons, Tony Pollard has been one in all fantasy’s high RB handcuffs. It’s additionally clear that he may very well be a lot extra if given the chance. How ought to fantasy soccer managers — together with dynasty managers — worth him in 2022 and past?
Tony Pollard’s dynasty profile for 2022
The Cowboys chosen Pollard within the fourth spherical within the 2019 NFL Draft to enhance the seemingly unstoppable Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke was solely 23 years outdated and had simply adopted up a 2,001-scrimmage-yard marketing campaign in 2018 with a 1,777-yard, 14-touchdown effort. Merely put, Pollard posed no risk to Dallas’ long-term bell cow.
However issues transfer rapidly within the NFL. After solely a year-and-a-half within the league, Pollard had made waves as a flexible again with high-end speeding and pass-catching skills. He confirmed off these expertise in school operating behind Darrell Henderson. And in his first profession begin in Week 15 of 2020, on the daybreak of Elliott’s struggles, Pollard confirmed Cowboy followers and fantasy managers what they’d been lacking, as he compiled a 12-69-2 speeding line and 6-63-0 receiving line.
Pollard had extra PPR fantasy factors that week (31.2) than Zeke had at some other time that season. The truth is, Elliott hasn’t exceeded that mark since 2018. But Pollard did it on his first strive.
The perennial backup’s position has continued increasing: 101 touches as a rookie, 129 the next season, and 169 final yr. His 5.1 yards per carry is among the many league’s highest amongst lively backs. And his elite-level receiving chops translated right into a 39-337-0 receiving line on a dominant 85% catch charge in 2021.
Investing in him in 2022 and past means investing in somebody with a large variance of outcomes, starting from an RB3/4 as Zeke’s backup to an RB1 as a bell cow. The latter situation hinges on his and his backfield mate’s futures in Dallas. Assuming he stays wholesome, Pollard will begin someplace starting in 2024, and maybe as quickly as 2023. Dynasty managers are inspired to put money into him now, assuming a large payoff later.
Fantasy projection for Pollard
About six weeks in the past, my fantasy analysts and I independently assembled preliminary dynasty fantasy rankings for 2022. Apparently, all of us had the identical impression of Pollard: Jason Katz and I ranked him because the RB27, one spot forward of Elliott, whereas Tommy Garrett positioned him at No. 29.
Our collective rankings assumed Pollard could be a lead again throughout his prime years. The questions concern how lengthy he’ll have to attend and the way dynamic his offense shall be. Listed here are the foremost points to think about.
Will Pollard have standalone fantasy worth in 2022?
As with all RB handcuffs — together with glorified handcuffs like Pollard — the backup’s fantasy ceiling will stay comparatively low until Zeke will get harm or benched. Notably, each backs ran higher final yr within the second half when it comes to yards per carry. However Elliott’s break up was 4.1 within the first half vs. 4.4 within the first. Pollard’s was 4.9 within the first half vs. (are you prepared for this?) 6.6 within the second half. The truth is, Pollard’s half splits the season earlier than have been even crazier: 2.7 within the first vs. 5.5 within the second.
I’m bringing this up as a result of in 2021, inexplicably, solely 42% of Pollard’s touches got here within the second half. As a change-of-pace again in opposition to worn-down defenses, he produced elite numbers. But the Cowboys gave him 39% fewer second-half touches than the significantly slower and fewer agile Zeke.
That ought to change a minimum of considerably in 2022. We will envision a situation the place Pollard’s utilization grows from 11.2 touches per sport in 2021 to a minimum of 12, and probably even 13. Whereas this sounds minor on a micro degree, we’re speaking a few roughly 8-16% utilization bump. A 12% enhance in touches final season on the identical manufacturing charge would have given him 18.8 extra fantasy factors, pushing him to inside earshot of high-end RB3 manufacturing.
Longer-term, Pollard presents RB1 upside. For 2022, he must be a constant streamer in deeper leagues, with a shot at RB2+ manufacturing within the fantasy playoffs if he begins pushing for equal time.
Learn how to assess Pollard’s contract scenario
Pollard’s rookie contract ends after the 2022 season. If Dallas lets him stroll, he’ll in all probability earn starter’s cash and start the 2023 marketing campaign as a crew’s bell cow — or on the very least, a 225+ contact, 1A RB.
If Dallas decides Elliott’s wage and talents not align (and honestly, they don’t, however most individuals already know that), then we may see a situation the place the Cowboys go all-in on retaining Pollard whereas both reducing Zeke (and incurring some monetary ache) or buying and selling him. It could be very laborious to discover a buying and selling companion for Elliott until he’s reborn in 2022 because the “Zeke of outdated” (moderately than “outdated Zeke”).
So Pollard holds lots of the playing cards, and the playing cards he performs hinge largely on what Dallas will get out of Elliott by midseason. Because of this dynasty managers ought to focus carefully on whether or not the Cowboys proceed pushing Elliott as their unquestioned starter. As a result of if Pollard will get extra run, it’d sign which participant this franchise desires to put money into going ahead.
And if Pollard stays in Dallas with out Zeke, the environment could be practically optimum for his dynasty worth: offensive line, a succesful protection, and a powerful passing sport. A crew that must be main excess of trailing. And no clear backfield competitors. These are circumstances for a high-probability RB1.
