In 14 months, Wales will walk out at the Adelaide Oval to start their Rugby World Cup campaign against Zimbabwe.
Six days later, they’ll take on Tonga in Melbourne before finishing the pool stage against England in Sydney. Such is the nature of the new World Cup format, Wales perhaps aren’t facing the same jeopardy as previous years.
Even with their current standing in world rugby, they should easily be the second best team in that pool. Even some of the third-placed sides in the pools will make the knockout stages.
But, on the flipside, it would take something remarkable for them to arrive Down Under as contenders for the latter stages.
There are around 12 or so Tests until that match with Zimbabwe. Four Nations Championship matches in the autumn, five Six Nations matches in the spring and then some World Cup warm-up matches ahead of flying to Australia.
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Nothing’s been confirmed on the latter, although Wales are expected to play Spain in Cardiff in one of them.
With a dozen or so matches before the World Cup, there’s a fair bit of work for Tandy to get through.
Try another centre partnership
Let’s start with the one everyone is seemingly calling for. Wales have favoured a ball-playing 12 since Matt Sherratt first became involved with Wales during last year’s Six Nations.
Of those 17 matches, Ben Thomas has started nine and Joe Hawkins has started eight. At times, there have been some positives in attack – such as scoring four tries against New Zealand.
However, this summer hasn’t really seen Wales’ attack click all that much. Part of that could be down to limited training time with the travel, while there’s maybe been a focus on other areas of the game given the new coaches coming in.
But, right now, it doesn’t feel like Wales are playing in a way that suits the second playmaker style. Either they pivot towards it hard if they choose to persevere, or they maybe take a look at someone like Eddie James or Bryn Bradley in the 12 jersey moving forward.
Certainly, between now and next October, you feel they’ve got to at least try a different type of inside centre at some point.
Adapt the narrative
It’s understandable that Tandy and his team have been staying positive throughout this first year. There’s no quick fix – this is a long-term job.
Tandy himself admits that journalists will get tired of him saying that it’s about performances first and foremost. In fairness to the man, what else is he meant to say?
He’s on a hiding to nothing in many regards. At least he hasn’t resorted to the levels of self-preservation that marked Warren Gatland’s second spell in charge.
Tandy’s been consistent in his messaging, but the simple fact of the matter is that won’t wash with the Welsh public for much longer.
Many didn’t turn on Gatland because of his record in his first spell and the hold he has over the casual fan. Tandy doesn’t have that same credit – there’s not the same demand on the after-dinner circuit for the former Ospreys boss.
So, for all the positive things Tandy has done that Gatland, if we’re being brutally honest, ultimately didn’t want to do – like show up around the regions and speak to players regularly – it means little to the wider audience.
All they see is unrelenting positivity and repetitive soundbites in the face of more defeats. That needs to be tempered.
No one’s asking for self-flagellation or returning to the days of throwing people under buses or blaming Margaret Thatcher, but the current messaging probably needs tweaking.
Get Pete Murchie up to speed quickly
Wales’ defence had started to turn a corner in the Six Nations. As their discipline improved, they went from conceding 50 points per game to just 23.
That was without a permanent defence coach, with former Scotland international Pete Murchie joining this summer. Given his commitments in Japan, it was a relatively late arrival.
He’ll now realise he’s got his work cut out.
Murchie has made some minor changes to Wales’ defence. Those in camp explain how they’re looking to get higher and push up, with the wingers in particular encouraged to make more reads in defence.
There’s changes to detail, with a slightly different language. As such, it’s perhaps not surprising things have regressed a little – with Wales’ missed tackle count across the three matches alarmingly high at 97.
However, in the land where Shaun Edwards is revered – and also seemingly on the market again – defence coaches aren’t exactly blessed with patience to get it right.
Target the Wallabies and the top eight
Speaking on ITV, former Wales captain Sam Warburton said that targeting the top eight is the short-term goal for Wales. He’s not wrong.
In the last year, after the 18-Test losing run, they’ve beaten the three teams currently sat ninth, 10th and 12th – Fiji, Japan and Italy.
That is, unfortunately, Wales’ level. They’ll play Japan again in the autumn. They could play them again at the end of the autumn on finals weekend, while Fiji could be a potential opponent.
Wales then travel to Italy in the Six Nations, with a first away victory in the Six Nations since 2023 surely the target.
But, when it comes closing the gap on the top eight, this November’s match with Australia is the benchmark. The Wallabies currnelty sit in eighth, about 5 points ahead of Wales in the rankings.
That’s a sizable gap – showing the difference between the top eight and those below them. But, with new head coach Les Kiss coming in to replace Joe Schmidt, Wales need to go all out to beat the Wallabies.
Build the things that work into an identity
There’s a lot of consternation that Wales’ attack doesn’t work beyond the driving maul. Obviously, that’s a concern on the one hand – but it’s not as wholly negative as some would make out.
Being able to lean on a functioning set-piece isn’t something to be sniffed at. There are, amongst all the negative, some things that are working.
The driving lineout, the scrum and the tactical kicking game are all fairly solid, while Wales’ red-zone attack – while taking a step or two backwards this summer – has tended to be pretty strong.
When they get into striking range, they have looked fairly clinical.
The problem is getting there, with Wales overplaying in the middle third against Argentina and being physically dominated against South Africa.
That’s something that needs fixing, but those positive facets – even if they’re not much – have to be what Wales build their identity around now.
Wrap Tomas Francis in cotton wool
Wales’ scrum under Paul James has looked good, although it struggled against South Africa. In fairness, most scrums in world rugby would.
Dillon Lewis has made a solid return to Test rugby, while Ben Warren has looked decent off the bench.
But, tighthead is still a position lacking in depth.
Tomas Francis was given the summer off ahead of his move to Sale from France, while Archie Griffin was out injured.
In particular, nursing Francis through the next year or so is crucial.
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